2018-19 NHL discussion thread eh

tom_gtom_g WV
edited October 1 in General
No way Washington wins again.

'You do that, you go to the box, you know. Two minutes, by yourself, you know and you feel shame, you know. And then you get free.'  Denis Lemieux - Slap Shot
Flukes
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Comments

  • I was more surprised to see a commercial last night during the Pitt-Baltimore game saying that the NHL season started back up this week.  Seems like it's starting really early.  Then again, it's already October....
  • FlukesFlukes Calgary, Canada
    I don't see any reason why the Caps can't win their division, but I fully expect TB to be a buzzsaw this year.

    In the West it's hard not to be scared of San Jose. Goddamn Burns and Karlsson on the same blue line is just unfair. I think they'll take over control of the Pacific from Anaheim.


    hypergenesb
  • TaraC73TaraC73 Manchester NH
    This is old, but still gets the blood pumping! 

    https://youtu.be/X3j9I-rswlQ


  • UGH - Now youtube thinks I'm a Bruins fan.
    CretanBullTaraC73
  • TaraC73 said:
    This is old, but still gets the blood pumping! 

    https://youtu.be/X3j9I-rswlQ



    The anthem after the Boston Marathon bombing with Rene Rancourt stepping back and letting the crowd basically sing the whole anthem was one of the coolest things i remember watching and ranks right up there with any sport moment.
    TaraC73
  • edited October 1
    Hoping my Avs can keep up the play this year and not completely fall apart like they did a few years ago after winning the division.

    @tom_g thx for starting the thread. I haven't payed any attention to preseason and forgot to create it last month.

  • Its the Winnipeg Jet's Stanley Cup to lose. 
  • tom_g said:
    UGH - Now youtube thinks I'm a Bruins fan.
    Gross!
    TaraC73DoubleA_Ron
  • I think Tampa will come out of the East, but a few other team's might do something.  I can't predict the West at all...San Jose, Nashville, Winnipeg all look great and teams like St. Louis have made improvements...it seems like a crap shoot.

    The one thing that I'm certain of, as a Habs fan it's going to be a long year (or two, or three).
    TaraC73
  • TaraC73TaraC73 Manchester NH
    tom_g said:
    UGH - Now youtube thinks I'm a Bruins fan.
    You’re welcome, @tom_g
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  • We might get an NHL team in Seattle. That's all I know.
    It's pretty much a guarantee at this point, it would be shocking if it fell through.

    FlukesDancesWithWookies
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  • We might get an NHL team in Seattle. That's all I know.
    It's pretty much a guarantee at this point, it would be shocking if it fell through.

    Introducing your 2021 Stanley Cup champions, the Seattle Metropolitans Totems!!!
    TaraC73
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  • We might get an NHL team in Seattle. That's all I know.
    It's pretty much a guarantee at this point, it would be shocking if it fell through.

    Introducing your 2021 Stanley Cup champions, the Seattle Metropolitans Totems!!!
    I think the word you are looking for is Metrosexual. LOL

    BTW when Metrosexual was a thing, there was a tourism slogan here "metronatural" haha


    The Seattle Metropolitans were the first American team to win a Stanley Cup way back in 1917.  But, Seattle Metronaturals does have a nice ring to it....
  • I’m a huge San Jose fan and I love the move to get Karlsson. I can see us winning the west but I can’t believe how many people are overlooking Vegas. I know they lost Neal but they are still a dam good team and will probably be one of the top teams in the division again this year.
    Jovial_FalconDoubleA_Ron
  • Seattle should have received a team before Vegas. I'm all for it. They have a great fan base up there.
    CretanBull
  • I’m a huge San Jose fan and I love the move to get Karlsson. I can see us winning the west but I can’t believe how many people are overlooking Vegas. I know they lost Neal but they are still a dam good team and will probably be one of the top teams in the division again this year.
    I don't want to go too deep into it because I went on about it a lot in last year's thread, but the analytics for Las Vegas aren't very good.  They were essentially more lucky than good - while still being a pretty good team.  I actually think that replacing Neal with Paccioritty makes them better so I don't think that they'll be hurt there.  The two things to look for are Marc-Andre Fleury and William Karlsson's numbers returning to a more normal level - both were playing at unsustainably high levels last year (Fleury saved a much higher percentage of the shots that he faced than he should have and Karlsson scored on a much higher percentage of the shots that he took than he should have).  Losing Nate Schmidt for 20 games will also hurt, his advanced stats were really good - when he was on the ice, Vegas got more shots on goal than they gave up, he's good at getting the puck out of their end and putting Vegas on the attack.

    You're in luck as a Sharks fan...the advanced stats showed that San Jose were unlucky last year and even without Karlsson you'd predict a better season this year.  But you've also added Karlsson who is an absolute advanced-stat beast, consistently one of the top 2-3 defensemen in the league (MILES better than Burns!)

    DoubleA_RonFlukes
  • CoryCory New Scotland
    We might get an NHL team in Seattle. That's all I know.
    It's pretty much a guarantee at this point, it would be shocking if it fell through.

    We're going to get an NHL team in Seattle. That's all I know.
    And  you'll be their #1 fan.
  • fidozfidoz Houston
    Until they're eliminated I will predict my Blackhawks will win the cup.
    Hatorian
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  • CoryCory New Scotland
    I think they are both WHL (part of the CHL) teams, so not professionals (for players aged 16-20), but the CHL is the top "feeder" league for the NHL.  Think what the NCAA is to the NBA/NFL.
    CretanBullFlukes
  • Cory said:
    I think they are both WHL (part of the CHL) teams, so not professionals (for players aged 16-20), but the CHL is the top "feeder" league for the NHL.  Think what the NCAA is to the NBA/NFL.
    Yup, Seattle Thunderbirds, Everett Silvertips, Tri-City Americans, Spokane Chiefs and the Portland Winterhawks make up an all American division in the WHL.
    DoubleA_RonJovial_Falcon
  • FlukesFlukes Calgary, Canada
    I’m a huge San Jose fan and I love the move to get Karlsson. I can see us winning the west but I can’t believe how many people are overlooking Vegas. I know they lost Neal but they are still a dam good team and will probably be one of the top teams in the division again this year.
    I don't want to go too deep into it because I went on about it a lot in last year's thread, but the analytics for Las Vegas aren't very good.  They were essentially more lucky than good - while still being a pretty good team.  I actually think that replacing Neal with Paccioritty makes them better so I don't think that they'll be hurt there.  The two things to look for are Marc-Andre Fleury and William Karlsson's numbers returning to a more normal level - both were playing at unsustainably high levels last year (Fleury saved a much higher percentage of the shots that he faced than he should have and Karlsson scored on a much higher percentage of the shots that he took than he should have).  Losing Nate Schmidt for 20 games will also hurt, his advanced stats were really good - when he was on the ice, Vegas got more shots on goal than they gave up, he's good at getting the puck out of their end and putting Vegas on the attack.

    You're in luck as a Sharks fan...the advanced stats showed that San Jose were unlucky last year and even without Karlsson you'd predict a better season this year.  But you've also added Karlsson who is an absolute advanced-stat beast, consistently one of the top 2-3 defensemen in the league (MILES better than Burns!)

    I don't think Vegas will be as good this year. The players had a huge chip on their collective shoulder after being cast-off by their teams. For guys like Neal, I believe they saw Vegas as an opportunity to be the guy - something they'd never have on a team with a superstar.

    I'll go look back at your previous post, but I'm not seeing luck in VGK's stats. Vegas's regular season PDO was only 1.055 which means their combination of shooting percentage and save percentage was baaaarely over even.This is the "stars-aligning" stat for NHL teams and it's usually a good bet to see regression to 1.0 in teams that massively over or under-perform. .055 doesn't account for their season. It just doesn't. As far as being lucky goes - it seems like Vegas is only slightly better than average. Winnipeg is getting a lot of buzz based on their performance last year and they're PDO was 101.7.


    tom_g
  • Flukes said:
    I’m a huge San Jose fan and I love the move to get Karlsson. I can see us winning the west but I can’t believe how many people are overlooking Vegas. I know they lost Neal but they are still a dam good team and will probably be one of the top teams in the division again this year.
    I don't want to go too deep into it because I went on about it a lot in last year's thread, but the analytics for Las Vegas aren't very good.  They were essentially more lucky than good - while still being a pretty good team.  I actually think that replacing Neal with Paccioritty makes them better so I don't think that they'll be hurt there.  The two things to look for are Marc-Andre Fleury and William Karlsson's numbers returning to a more normal level - both were playing at unsustainably high levels last year (Fleury saved a much higher percentage of the shots that he faced than he should have and Karlsson scored on a much higher percentage of the shots that he took than he should have).  Losing Nate Schmidt for 20 games will also hurt, his advanced stats were really good - when he was on the ice, Vegas got more shots on goal than they gave up, he's good at getting the puck out of their end and putting Vegas on the attack.

    You're in luck as a Sharks fan...the advanced stats showed that San Jose were unlucky last year and even without Karlsson you'd predict a better season this year.  But you've also added Karlsson who is an absolute advanced-stat beast, consistently one of the top 2-3 defensemen in the league (MILES better than Burns!)

    I don't think Vegas will be as good this year. The players had a huge chip on their collective shoulder after being cast-off by their teams. For guys like Neal, I believe they saw Vegas as an opportunity to be the guy - something they'd never have on a team with a superstar.

    I'll go look back at your previous post, but I'm not seeing luck in VGK's stats. Vegas's regular season PDO was only 1.055 which means their combination of shooting percentage and save percentage was baaaarely over even.This is the "stars-aligning" stat for NHL teams and it's usually a good bet to see regression to 1.0 in teams that massively over or under-perform. .055 doesn't account for their season. It just doesn't. As far as being lucky goes - it seems like Vegas is only slightly better than average. Winnipeg is getting a lot of buzz based on their performance last year and they're PDO was 101.7.


    Season wise, it did average out (as it's expected to) but down the stretch it went crazy high (which evened out lower numbers numbers during other parts of the season) and it was during that crazy stretch & the playoffs went people started to pay attention...so people familiar with THAT Vegas are going to see a drop-off in play.  Fleury's SV% was up around .940 during that time, it will drop back down to .920-ish.  Karlsson was shooting something crazy like 17% or something like that, that should drop to about 8%.  When the team's starting goalie and 1st line C both come back down to earth, expect a drop off.  Overall, the underlying numbers are good though.

    Side note, I always look at PDO relative to Corsi...if your PDO is high but you have the possession numbers to support it, it's likely to be sustainable (as long as it isn't crazy high) that's why Winnipeg's 101.7 doesn't bother me any.
    Flukes
  • FlukesFlukes Calgary, Canada
    Flukes said:
    I’m a huge San Jose fan and I love the move to get Karlsson. I can see us winning the west but I can’t believe how many people are overlooking Vegas. I know they lost Neal but they are still a dam good team and will probably be one of the top teams in the division again this year.
    I don't want to go too deep into it because I went on about it a lot in last year's thread, but the analytics for Las Vegas aren't very good.  They were essentially more lucky than good - while still being a pretty good team.  I actually think that replacing Neal with Paccioritty makes them better so I don't think that they'll be hurt there.  The two things to look for are Marc-Andre Fleury and William Karlsson's numbers returning to a more normal level - both were playing at unsustainably high levels last year (Fleury saved a much higher percentage of the shots that he faced than he should have and Karlsson scored on a much higher percentage of the shots that he took than he should have).  Losing Nate Schmidt for 20 games will also hurt, his advanced stats were really good - when he was on the ice, Vegas got more shots on goal than they gave up, he's good at getting the puck out of their end and putting Vegas on the attack.

    You're in luck as a Sharks fan...the advanced stats showed that San Jose were unlucky last year and even without Karlsson you'd predict a better season this year.  But you've also added Karlsson who is an absolute advanced-stat beast, consistently one of the top 2-3 defensemen in the league (MILES better than Burns!)

    I don't think Vegas will be as good this year. The players had a huge chip on their collective shoulder after being cast-off by their teams. For guys like Neal, I believe they saw Vegas as an opportunity to be the guy - something they'd never have on a team with a superstar.

    I'll go look back at your previous post, but I'm not seeing luck in VGK's stats. Vegas's regular season PDO was only 1.055 which means their combination of shooting percentage and save percentage was baaaarely over even.This is the "stars-aligning" stat for NHL teams and it's usually a good bet to see regression to 1.0 in teams that massively over or under-perform. .055 doesn't account for their season. It just doesn't. As far as being lucky goes - it seems like Vegas is only slightly better than average. Winnipeg is getting a lot of buzz based on their performance last year and they're PDO was 101.7.


    Season wise, it did average out (as it's expected to) but down the stretch it went crazy high (which evened out lower numbers numbers during other parts of the season) and it was during that crazy stretch & the playoffs went people started to pay attention...so people familiar with THAT Vegas are going to see a drop-off in play.  Fleury's SV% was up around .940 during that time, it will drop back down to .920-ish.  Karlsson was shooting something crazy like 17% or something like that, that should drop to about 8%.  When the team's starting goalie and 1st line C both come back down to earth, expect a drop off.  Overall, the underlying numbers are good though.

    Side note, I always look at PDO relative to Corsi...if your PDO is high but you have the possession numbers to support it, it's likely to be sustainable (as long as it isn't crazy high) that's why Winnipeg's 101.7 doesn't bother me any.
    We see swings like that on lots of teams. The Flames, for example, love to dig themselves a nice big hole so their post-christmas tear doesn't add up to jack shit. I can see what you're saying - I don't expect Vegas to look like they did during that last stretch either.

    I didn't see anything crazy in their corsi - other than there seemed to be less difference within the team. Almost no one over 55% or under 45%. Usually teams have a few individuals who are getting killed / bad zone starts and another group who are being sheltered. VGK seems just kind of vanilla all the way through, which sort of jives with their team makeup. Lots of journeymen, no superstars, few raw rookies.

    Vegas's shot generation and thus expected goals were second only to Dallas in the west. I guess we could say that you'd expect a team generating that many shots to have a lower shooting percentage than VGK did - so maybe that's where luck is showing.
    CretanBull
  • I don't have the numbers in front of me at the moment, but Karlsson's sh% was crazy high (like Gretzky level high).  He scored 40+ goals on a relatively small number of shots...I forget the exact total off hand, but I did the math last year and he should have scored something like 15 goals based off of the number of shots that he took.

    Take 25-30 goals off their total, factor in a more realistic .920 sv% and that will impact the resutls.  I think losing Nate  Schmidt will hurt too, but they have guys who can step up (ie more ice time for Shae Theodore) so that may or may not be an issue.

  • FlukesFlukes Calgary, Canada
    I don't have the numbers in front of me at the moment, but Karlsson's sh% was crazy high (like Gretzky level high).  He scored 40+ goals on a relatively small number of shots...I forget the exact total off hand, but I did the math last year and he should have scored something like 15 goals based off of the number of shots that he took.

    Take 25-30 goals off their total, factor in a more realistic .920 sv% and that will impact the resutls.  I think losing Nate  Schmidt will hurt too, but they have guys who can step up (ie more ice time for Shae Theodore) so that may or may not be an issue.

    You'll get no argument from me that Karlsson's shooting percentage is an outlier.

    His 5v5 SH% in the regular season: 20.31

    In Columbus he managed 9 and 5.8 in full seasons.

    Maybe it's a return to his 2014-2015 form where he scored once on five shots for a 20%. :D

    CretanBull
  • edited October 3
    Let's go Canes!!! :D

    Thankfully, a few common-sense problems have been addressed.  I love head coach Roddy Brind'Amore.  I don't know how he'll do, but he has more passion than the previous decade's worth of Carolina head coaches.  CAPTAIN Justin Williams.  The co-captain thing last year was a joke, capped by Faulk's disastrous performance, so I'm glad it's going to the elder skatesman. 

    Darling came into camp in shape and played extremely well in the pre-season.  He suffered an injury in Nashville, but hopefully he has a better year and Mrazek can step up too.  Svechnikov looks pretty good and I think Necas will spend most of the season here too.  I'm not sure what to make of Calvin de Haan and the Hamilton/Ferland trade, but they add size, shutdown defense, and leave the door open for booting Faulk... so I'm in.

    Some issues.  Rumor is that Aho is struggling at centre against various elite leagues.  He's a bad motherfucker, so I'm not too worried, but Carolina severely lacks centre depth and Aho was supposed to fill that.  Darling/Mrazek is universally labeled as the worst goalie tandem in the league.  Teuvo is in his final year and is likely going to be a trading piece if the Canes aren't in contention, which sucks given his chemistry with Aho.
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