The NHL is BACK 2017/2018 Season

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  • That 1st period in the Jets game... are you kidding me?
    Yup, my Minnesota Wild completely shit the bed.  I'm really curious to see what happens with them before next year.  We've been in the playoffs the past 6 seasons BUT have never made it past the 2nd round.  If I remember correctly I heard something like our record the past 3 playoff seasons are 4-12.  We seem to be stuck in a place where we're good enough to make the playoffs but not good enough to put up any kind of threat.  
  • Jake Guentzel for President, 2032.
  • Annnnnnnnnnnnd the Avs get smoked at home.

    We played them hard every game but #6. Still a great season going from worst to this so its something to look forward for next year.
  • That 1st period in the Jets game... are you kidding me?
    Yup, my Minnesota Wild completely shit the bed.  I'm really curious to see what happens with them before next year.  We've been in the playoffs the past 6 seasons BUT have never made it past the 2nd round.  If I remember correctly I heard something like our record the past 3 playoff seasons are 4-12.  We seem to be stuck in a place where we're good enough to make the playoffs but not good enough to put up any kind of threat.  
    No sooner I post this than it is announced that the Wild are NOT renewing the GMs (Chuck Fletcher) contract.  
  • That 1st period in the Jets game... are you kidding me?
    Yup, my Minnesota Wild completely shit the bed.  I'm really curious to see what happens with them before next year.  We've been in the playoffs the past 6 seasons BUT have never made it past the 2nd round.  If I remember correctly I heard something like our record the past 3 playoff seasons are 4-12.  We seem to be stuck in a place where we're good enough to make the playoffs but not good enough to put up any kind of threat.  
    I think the Wild are pretty good, just got matched up against a team that's one of the favourites to win the Cup.

    There have been rumours floating around Montreal since the trade deadline that the Habs might send Max Paccioretty to the Wild for Charlie Coyle and a 1st pick.  I'm guessing with Fletcher gone that's probably off the table now.
  • okay - how good is Vegas?
    [Deleted User]CretanBull
  • @tom_g that game was pretty ridiculous.
  • That 1st period in the Jets game... are you kidding me?
    Yup, my Minnesota Wild completely shit the bed.  I'm really curious to see what happens with them before next year.  We've been in the playoffs the past 6 seasons BUT have never made it past the 2nd round.  If I remember correctly I heard something like our record the past 3 playoff seasons are 4-12.  We seem to be stuck in a place where we're good enough to make the playoffs but not good enough to put up any kind of threat.  
    I think the Wild are pretty good, just got matched up against a team that's one of the favourites to win the Cup.

    There have been rumours floating around Montreal since the trade deadline that the Habs might send Max Paccioretty to the Wild for Charlie Coyle and a 1st pick.  I'm guessing with Fletcher gone that's probably off the table now.
    I would like to see the Wild deal Coyle somewhere.  He hasn't done much here and he really doesn't play to the full capability with how big he is in my opinion.  He does have potential but someone needs to unlock that with him.
  • That 1st period in the Jets game... are you kidding me?
    Yup, my Minnesota Wild completely shit the bed.  I'm really curious to see what happens with them before next year.  We've been in the playoffs the past 6 seasons BUT have never made it past the 2nd round.  If I remember correctly I heard something like our record the past 3 playoff seasons are 4-12.  We seem to be stuck in a place where we're good enough to make the playoffs but not good enough to put up any kind of threat.  
    I think the Wild are pretty good, just got matched up against a team that's one of the favourites to win the Cup.

    There have been rumours floating around Montreal since the trade deadline that the Habs might send Max Paccioretty to the Wild for Charlie Coyle and a 1st pick.  I'm guessing with Fletcher gone that's probably off the table now.
    I would like to see the Wild deal Coyle somewhere.  He hasn't done much here and he really doesn't play to the full capability with how big he is in my opinion.  He does have potential but someone needs to unlock that with him.
    I think Coyle has great potential but he's been hampered by injuries and that's slowed down his progress...still though, the size and raw talent are there to be an impact player.
  • tom_g said:
    okay - how good is Vegas?
    I'm stunned - I really don't know what else to say.  In the regular season, their advanced stats were a little bit odd. Comparing their corsi and their PDO, the advanced stats show that they got better results than they should have gotten.  Corsi would predict that they'd finish around the middle of the pack (they were ranked 13th) but finished 5th, but their PDO showed that they were only slightly more lucky than other teams.

    Their play-off stats aren't so good.  Their corsi is positive (53%) but their PDO is high (1072) suggesting that their level of play will drop off.  The good news for them - San Jose's corsi is low (46%) but they've also been lucky (PDO of 1047).

    Bet on Vegas to win this series.

  • My Brother-in-law stands to win $25k if Vegas wins the cup. He put down something like $100 before the season started. He probably should start hedging the bet but they just destroyed game 1.  
  • yeah, i'm crazy impressed by Vegas. 
  • That Sharks Golden Knights game last night was amazing.  2 well matched teams and some extremely pretty goals were scored on both sides.  I absolutely love playoff hockey for this exact reason.  Can't wait for more.
  • Those games last night were incredible.  Nothing can beat playoff hockey 

    The goal from Ovechkin last night...wow.


    [Deleted User]
  • Hatorian said:
    My Brother-in-law stands to win $25k if Vegas wins the cup. He put down something like $100 before the season started. He probably should start hedging the bet but they just destroyed game 1.  
    Dang!  Yeah that's always a really tough choice when to hedge and how much when they are playing so well but that is a significant payday that you have plenty of room to start hedging now
  • Tom Wilson left his feet - broke a guys jaw - nothing to see here - keep up the good work.
    hypergenesb
  • tom_g said:
    Tom Wilson left his feet - broke a guys jaw - nothing to see here - keep up the good work.
    Well done NHL.
    hypergenesb
  • edited May 2018
    Bye, Felicia.  I'm so glad we don't have to hear about the historic stats of Sindey anymore. 

    Filip Forsberg is a goddamn wizard.  I don't know if the Predators can win game 7, but it's been a heck of a series.  These are two of the best two teams in the playoffs going at it.
  • My predictions are going well...5 points for picking the series winner, 5 bonus points for getting the total games right:

    My picks:

    Bruins over the Leafs in 5
    Tampa over the Devils in 4
    Columbus over Washington in 6
    Pittsburgh over Philly in 5

    Nashville over Colorado in 4
    Winnipeg over Minnesota in 6
    LA over Vegas in 6
    San Jose over Anaheim in 6

    The LA/Vegas series looks like the only one where I won't pick the right winner...and I look decent on most of the series lengths too.

    My second round picks are doing ok!

    Pittsburgh over Washington in 6
    Tampa over Boston in 6

    Vegas over San Jose in 6
    Winnipeg over Nashville in 7

    ------

    My picks for the next round:

    Tampa over Washington in 6
    Winnipeg or Nashville over Vegas in 5

    awookiee
  • WarpFoxWarpFox Nashville, TN
    edited May 2018
    My predictions are going well...5 points for picking the series winner, 5 bonus points for getting the total games right:

    My picks:

    Bruins over the Leafs in 5
    Tampa over the Devils in 4
    Columbus over Washington in 6
    Pittsburgh over Philly in 5

    Nashville over Colorado in 4
    Winnipeg over Minnesota in 6
    LA over Vegas in 6
    San Jose over Anaheim in 6

    The LA/Vegas series looks like the only one where I won't pick the right winner...and I look decent on most of the series lengths too.

    My second round picks are doing ok!

    Pittsburgh over Washington in 6
    Tampa over Boston in 6

    Vegas over San Jose in 6
    Winnipeg over Nashville in 7

    ------

    My picks for the next round:

    Tampa over Washington in 6
    Winnipeg or Nashville over Vegas in 5

    My Preds had better not shit the bed tonight after a goddamn away-game shutout. I'm predicting a Preds vs. Caps cup final. 
  • WarpFoxWarpFox Nashville, TN
    Omg I'm so pissed. 
  • WarpFox said:
    My predictions are going well...5 points for picking the series winner, 5 bonus points for getting the total games right:

    My picks:

    Bruins over the Leafs in 5
    Tampa over the Devils in 4
    Columbus over Washington in 6
    Pittsburgh over Philly in 5

    Nashville over Colorado in 4
    Winnipeg over Minnesota in 6
    LA over Vegas in 6
    San Jose over Anaheim in 6

    The LA/Vegas series looks like the only one where I won't pick the right winner...and I look decent on most of the series lengths too.

    My second round picks are doing ok!

    Pittsburgh over Washington in 6
    Tampa over Boston in 6

    Vegas over San Jose in 6
    Winnipeg over Nashville in 7

    ------

    My picks for the next round:

    Tampa over Washington in 6
    Winnipeg or Nashville over Vegas in 5

    My Preds had better not shit the bed tonight after a goddamn away-game shutout. I'm predicting a Preds vs. Caps cup final. 

    WarpFox said:
    Omg I'm so pissed. 
    PK Subban is my favourite player (I'm a bitter Habs fan who is still mad at our GM for trading him!) so I was cheering for Nashville....but I also would like to see the Cup come home to Canada so I was also cheering for Winnipeg.  I basically wanted the winner of this series to win the Cup.

    At the beginning of the Cup, I was predicting the winner of Winnipeg/Nashville (I was certain those teams would meet!) to beat the Penguins in the final.  The Pens are out, so I'm all in on the Jets now.
    [Deleted User]
  • Beings my Wild shit the bed again I've been rooting for Vegas and for the Capitols.  My sister lives just outside Vegas and was excited for Vegas getting a team.  I've been rooting for Vegas from the start of the season and I'd love to see Ovi finally get a cup.
    [Deleted User]
  • Excellent piece on ESPN about why The Caps are experiencing success this postseason, as opposed to previous ones. The answer is the same we read about any team that makes a deep run: Everyone is playing D. 
    [Deleted User]
  • Excellent piece on ESPN about why The Caps are experiencing success this postseason, as opposed to previous ones. The answer is the same we read about any team that makes a deep run: Everyone is playing D. 
    Greg Wyshynski is one of the best hockey writers in America, but I disagree with him (admittedly, his view is the consensus view).  The advanced stats show that the Caps have been successful this year because they've been lucky.  I guess it could be said that their commitment to defensive hockey is generating their luck, but it's still luck and a bad thing to bet on continuing.

    When looking at advanced stats, the two things to key in on are Corsi and PDO.  In simple terms, Corsi measures how you're playing and PDO measures your luck.  If your PDO is high, you've been lucky - expect to cool off and see your Corsi drop.  If your PDO is low, you've been unlucky - expect to get hot and see your Corsi rise.

    A Corsi of 50% is good/average...a Corsi over 50% indicates that you're playing well (regardless of whether you're winning or losing).  A PDO of 1000 is considered to be luck-neutral, you're as lucky as your are unlucky.  So a team that is playing well - say a Corsi of 53% and they have a PDO of 1000, you can expect that they will continue to play well at that 53% because their PDO of 1000 shows that their quality of play isn't boosted by good luck or hampered by bad luck.  If that same team was playing at 53% corsi level but had a PDO under 1000, say 990 - you'd say that as well as the team is playing (53%) you'd expect them to get even better because they've been unlucky.  Likewise, if that team was playing at 53% but their PDO was 1015 you'd say that the team has been lucky and you'd expect their level of play to drop off.

    Right now, the Caps are playing very average 50.04% Corsi, but they've been very lucky with a PDO of 1026 - so we should expect that 50.04% level of play to drop off (which would bring them under 50%, which isn't good).

    If you look at Tampa, their Corsi is a pretty good 53.26%, but their PDO is 999 - they've actually been very, very slightly unlucky - so we can predict that Tampa will continue to play well at that 53.26% level.

    Over time, PDO tends to regress to the means...if it's significantly higher than 1000 it will drop, if it's significantly lower it will rise.

    The Caps could very well beat the Lightning, but it won't be because of their defensive play - it will be because their luck hasn't run out yet.
  • If you're curious about the Western Conference....

    Winnipeg - Corsi 52.88%  PDO 1007.  Playing well, but have been a little lucky.
    Vegas - Corsi 51.59%  PDO 1047.  Playing pretty well, but have been insanely lucky (if you dig deeper, the source of their luck is Marc-Andre Fleury...he's playing INCREDIBLY well).

    Expect Winnipeg's level of play to drop a little bit, Expect Vegas' level of play to crash.

    Again though, just like the Caps - The Knight could easily beat the Jets, but if they do it will be because their luck doesn't run out.
  • If anyone find any of this number crunching interesting....

    Tampa - Corsi: 51.90% PDO: 1013
    Washington - Corsi: 50.58%  PDO: 1010

    Compared to my last post, the quality of Tampa's play has dropped off a little bit (from 53.26% to 51.90%) but they're luck has shot up (from 999 to 1013).  Meanwhile, Washington's level of play has improved very marginally (from 50.04% to 50.58%) but their luck has has started to crash (down to 1010 from 1026).

    Winnipeg - Corsi: 53.42% PDO: 1000
    Vegas - Corsi: 50.28% PDO: 1048

    Compare to my last post, the Jets are actually playing better (53.42% from 52.88%) but their luck has run out (1007 down to 1000).  Vegas continues to defy the math....their level of play has dropped off (from 51.99% to 50.28%) but their unsustainably high luck has actually gotten higher (from 1047 to 1048).

    Overall, the Jets are still the best team going...but they're down 3-1 to the luckiest team that I've ever seen.

  • While crunching the numbers for the above, I noticed a few oddities from the regular season.  If you're looking for some long-shot bets with a decent chance of paying off I'd put money down on these three team now.  I'm sure that you'll get great odds on them and the math predicts huge turn-arounds for each of them.

    1.  Carolina.  There's a huge caveat here because their new owner is nuts and they've fired their coach so there's no guarantee that they'll play the same way that they did last season, but they had the highest level of play in the whole NHL last season (54.45% corsi) but were the second most unlucky team in the league (980 PDO).  The main source of their bad luck was exceptionally bad goaltending.  If they get even average goaltending and their luck (PDO) raises just to an average level (1000), they'll be one of the top 6 or 7 teams in the league.

    2.  Calgary.  3rd highest level of play in the league (53.51%) but ranked 26th in luck (987)...at their level of play, a return to even average luck will see them shoot up in the standings.

    3.  Chicago.  4th highest level of play in the league (52.32%) but ranked 25th in luck (989)...at their level of play, a return to even average luck will see them shoot up in the standings.

    Safe Bets:

    1.  Pittsburgh.  Ranked 5th for quality of play (52.26%) but ranked 26th! for luck (983)...with those numbers they should have been a long shot to make the Playoffs this season, they were horrifically unlucky this year and were still a top team.  Bet on them to do really well next season.

    2.  Boston.  2nd best level of play (53.71%) and didn't rely on luck to get there (1003).

    3. St. Louis.  Ranked 6th for quality of play (51.17%) and didn't rely on luck to get there (1001)

    Avoid at all costs:

    1. Minnesota.  2nd worst level of play in the league (47.19) and they were lucky (1010) to achieve that level of play!

    2.  New York Rangers.  Worst level of play in the league (45.93) and were only slightly unlucky (998).

    3.  Colorado.  5th worse level of play and relied on luck (1015) to get there.
  • HatorianHatorian Dagobah
    Chicago lost Crawford for most of the season and he was playing like a top 3 goal tender before he went down. Plus they will have another year of the young guns getting experience so I’m pretty sure their 1 year playoff drought will end next year 
  • It's an OK stat but using the word luck doesnt work for me.

    Tampa with 3 straight. My goodness. 
This discussion has been closed.