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The problem is in a city if you get a good number folks feeling their freedom excessively and getting back together in groups while virus is circulating you could end up with 100 new infections and an R0 back up in the 2 range. It’ll take 2 weeks for the numbers to show up in the system and for the government to react. 100 initial cases spreading for 14 days at R0 2.0 is well over 100,000 infections by the time you lock down again, and a second lock down is bound to be less effective than the initial one.
That’s enough to overwhelm a city healthcare system again.
There aren’t any good solutions here. When we get to widespread testing and the manpower to contact trace this is doable with less illness and death, but some of these states are letting their guard down weeks before the testing/tracing is up to the task.
Also, how are the folks demonstrating about their freedom going to react when they’re placed on compulsory quarantine because they got contact-traced by the government? What are we going to do if an asymptomatic super-spreader refuses to quarantine because they feel fine so the government’s test must be a fake?
We’re all questioning recent illnesses right now, but based on the behavior of COVID-19 in China, SK, Europe, New York, etc. this virus has not been circulating in the US prior to February of this year.
I look forward to the antibody tests being broadly available, but if you were sick in the US before February this wasn’t it.
Wow, I leave for a few hours...
@JamieT I hope you’re okay, or even if you’re positive that this is the worst of your symptoms.
I’ve read about all kinds of non-standard symptom sets being positive for the virus with the only consistent thing being a fever.
Young people are going to die and old people are going to live, the bell curve peaks with old people that also have preexisting conditions, but there are tails to the curve that will include a healthy teenager dying from it and a 90 year old with emphysema living through it. Nobody is safe, and yet nobody has a death sentence either.
if you are more than 15yrs from retirement, don’t sell out of your stock positions (assuming they’re indexes or mutual funds) locking in the losses. If you have discovered that you can’t take recessionary downturns in the market, then change your future allocations. Don’t lock in losses unless you’re relatively close to retirement and need to have cash or conservative stuff to fund withdrawals in the relatively near future. Pull up a graph of the DOW or S&P 500 from 2009 to 2014 to see what you could miss out on in the market if you sell-out because of fear now rather than ride it out.
The mental health struggle is real. I am hearing from all kinds of people working from home by necessity that it’s really a cause of stress and anxiety, not even mentioning the news and potential media obsession. I’d recommend Governor Cuomo’s press briefings over the White House’s if you want to see sane leadership in a crisis.
We will get through this, but it’s going to be an off-and-on battle for the next 18mos or so. We’re going to have a recession, but we will recover. Look for the helpers, they’re all over the place from first responders and medical professionals, to grocery store checkers and truck drivers keeping the food supply working. There is a lot in this crisis that shows the best of humanity when you choose to see it.
Not to just shoot stuff down. I think we could get through this by guaranteeing medical coverage and a universal basic income at the poverty line for every person/family until the employment market recovers to a reasonable level (like 6%-ish). Put it into law that it auto-renews until then so there is only one tough vote for congress to take.
You’re still going to see lots of income-rich/cash-poor folks go bankrupt (lots of people can live pay-check to pay-check making $200k/yr with houses, cars, boats, etc.). You’re going to have to pay for it with significant taxes later. It would guarantee a consistent base level of demand in the economy though.
I’m less a fan of locking people into their existing jobs. We need more people at Walmart, Amazon, Costco, grocery stores, etc. right now so don’t lock-in laid off waitresses and bartenders to their current places of employment. I don’t think the demand for restaurants, live sports, live music, live theater, movie theaters, cruises, etc., is going to be the same after this so don’t lock everyone in to those jobs. This pandemic is going to change to economy in unexpected ways, and we need a labor market that can adapt and is not frozen in time to the way things were before while also taking care of basic expenses and healthcare.
The GOP will never agree to this because they know people will like it want it never to end.