- Last Active
I think Cersei only have “legitimate” power as regent on behalf of Joffrey and then Tommen. After the death of her kids, I think she basically just took control and there was nobody to press a stronger claim because Danny was in Esos and there were no other known heirs to either the Targaryen or Baratheon dynasties. She didn’t really have much of a grip on the Seven Kingdoms though with the north in open revolt again, The Reach and Dorne quick to pledge against her, and The Stormlands leaderless as near as I can tell.
I think her plan to wrest control depended on Littlefinger in The Eyrie and eventually The North, The Frey’s in the Riverlands (later Bronn), the decapitation of Dorne, impotence in Highgarden after the death of all of their heirs, Casterly Rock of course.
If Beto can hold his own with details and delivery in the debates, then he’s a real contender. I love Mayor Pete, but I’m not sure the country is ready for a married gay candidate.
Harris has definite possibilities, I don’t think Warren is going to catch fire as she tends to go off in this kind of condescending professorial tone that my wife can’t stand, Booker and Gillebrand seem stalled, Klobuchar seems to have peaked though she may surprise in the debates, Bernie is Bernie and I don’t think he’s going to do better than last time around against hopefully-stronger-than-Clinton front-runners from this field, Castro and Hickenlooper and Inslee seem “low-energy,” Gabbard should drop out, I know nothing about Yang.
Biden looks like he’s going to run, but there is such a long, complex, inconsistent history with him that people will remember 30days into a candidacy, not to mention baggage if he tries to make it a third Obama term (baggage we forget with Trump being so bad). Not to mention notorious gaffs and some downright unintentional creepiness with women. I think the idea of Biden is better than the reality of a Candidate Biden.
So from this early I’m thinking Beto or Harris emerge with strong, but ultimately doomed, competition from Bernie and Biden which hopefully won’t drive lasting wedges into the party.
Mayor Pete will be great in the debates, and Klobuchar may also shine there, so could be a surprise; Beto and/or Harris could crash and burn in them too. Bernie will be reliably Bernie.
I hate to write Booker off, but he has a long way to go to be a credible contender.
Soooooo early though.